The Freight Recession: Why Recovery is Stalled

October 31, 2025

  • 2 months ago
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By Ahsan Ali

This week, the top executives of the trucking industry gathered in San Diego. The message from their top money expert was clear: don’t expect a quick fix for the struggling industry. The only thing that will eventually turn things around is if a lot of trucking companies go out of business, reducing the number of trucks on the road.

Here’s a simpler look at the other big trucking news from this week.

SCI oct 31
SCI oct 31

A Bit of Good News for Companies That Ship Goods:

Companies that need to move their products saw their situation get a little better in August. An important measure of their business conditions actually turned positive. This is mostly because fuel prices have been stable and the cost to hire a truck has gotten a bit cheaper, giving them the best market they’ve seen since last fall.

One expert, Avery Vise, said that new rules cracking down on truck drivers who don’t speak English well could make it a little harder to find available trucks. But, he added, it’s too soon to know how big of a deal this will be. For now, the market isn’t changing dramatically, but that could shift if demand for moving goods suddenly gets stronger.

More Freight is Moving, But Is It the Real Deal?

The amount of freight moved by trucks went up in September, and the number of available trucks went down a bit. This sounds like good news, but experts think it might be a temporary trick. Many companies rushed to build up their inventories before new taxes on imported goods, called tariffs, could kick in.

This creates a risk. A research analyst named Carter Vieth warned that if regular people start feeling worried about the economy or have less money to spend because of those tariffs, the demand for goods could slow down. The rush to move freight now might mean a slump later. On a positive note, some companies that use their own private fleets of trucks are starting to use for-hire carriers more, which is good for the trucking business.

Why the Market for Big Rigs is Still Struggling?

The market for new big trucks, known as Class 8 vehicles, is still facing a lot of problems. Experts at ACT Research say that economic uncertainty and tariffs are making companies very hesitant to buy new trucks.

Ken Vieth, a senior analyst, explained that the earlier tariffs did two things: First, they caused a small, temporary bump in truck sales, which actually kept some struggling trucking companies in business longer than expected. Second, they pulled a lot of freight demand forward, meaning we might see a drop in demand later this year.

He also warned of a potential “freight air pocket” ahead. After the inventory buildup, and with prices expected to rise because of tariffs, there’s little reason to think orders for new big trucks will suddenly spike.

spot rates oct 31
spot rates oct 31

Last Week’s Spot Market: Rates Stalled, Loads Dropped:

In the last week of October, the prices on the “spot market” – where shippers find trucks for single loads – were basically flat. The number of available loads took a sharp dive, the biggest drop in over a month and a half.

While prices for refrigerated and flatbed trucks inched up, the price for standard dry vans actually slipped slightly. For the first time in 11 weeks, dry van spot rates fell below where they were at the same time last year. An index that measures market demand also fell to its lowest point in nine weeks.

Author Profile

Ahsan Ali
Ahsan Ali
Ahsan Ali is a technology and business journalist who covers the latest developments in autonomous vehicles and innovative startups.

With a sharp eye for industry trends, he breaks down complex tech stories into clear, engaging insights for general readers.

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